Full Board

SUMMARY

Issue for Information

What issues do the members of the Board of Regents want to examine relating to establishing a graduation rate goal and annual target(s)?

Reason(s) for Consideration

Review of Policy.

Procedural History

In May 2009, the Regents began a discussion about graduation requirements and assessing whether New York should increase the graduation rate goal.  In June 2009, the Regents continued this discussion by examining the most recent graduation rate data for the 2004 cohort, comparisons to other recent cohort data and the impact of the Regents 2005 policy decision to phase-out the local diploma option for general education students. The Regents also discussed the new federal No Child Left Behind (NCLB) accountability requirements concerning establishing a new graduation rate goal and annual targets and using disaggregated graduation rate data.   

Background Information

Newly Released Graduation Data

              In June the Regents reviewed the graduation rate data for the last several student cohorts.  Because of significant improvements in our data and reporting operation, data on the most recent cohort (2004) was available significantly earlier than in the past.  

              Highlights of the data revealed:

• The four-year graduation rate (through June) statewide has increased from 66 percent for those who entered 9th grade in 2001 to 71 percent for those who entered 9th grade in 2004.

• Summer school made a difference once again in improving the graduation rate. The graduation rate of the 2004 cohort increased to 74 percent through August.

• A fifth year also made a significant difference in the graduation rate. The overall five-year graduation rate increased to 76 percent for those who entered 9th grade in 2003.

• Black and Hispanic students have shown the greatest gains in graduation, however rates are still low. Only 44 percent of Black students entering high school in 2001 graduated after four years (through June); that increased to 59 percent for Black students who entered 9th grade in 2004 and graduated in August 2008.

• Similarly, the 2001 cohort of Hispanic students had a four-year graduation rate (through June) of only 42 percent; the 2004 cohort had a four-year graduation rate (through August) of 57 percent.

• Among students with disabilities, the four-year graduation rate improved from 38 percent for the 2001 cohort to 42 percent for the 2004 cohort. However, fewer students had dropped out: 24 percent among the 2001 cohort and 16 percent among the 2004 cohort.

• The four year graduation rate of English Language Learners increased from 30 percent for the 2001 cohort to 36 percent for the 2004 cohort.

• The percentage of students receiving a local diploma vs. a Regents or Advanced Regents Diploma declined over the four years for students statewide, students by race/ethnicity, schools by Need/Resource Capacity, and modestly for English Language Learners. There was little improvement for students with disabilities.

Accountability Determinations and New Federal Requirements

Graduation rate accountability determinations about schools and districts are based upon whether or not a school or district has met the graduation rate goal established by the State, or, alternatively, whether or not the school or district has met the established annual graduation rate target.  The annual target(s) establish the degree of continuous and substantial improvement the student accountability groups that have not yet reached the graduation rate goal must make each year toward the goal.  If the school or district has not met either the graduation rate goal or the annual target for two consecutive years it has not made Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) in those years and is identified as in need of improvement. 

              New federal NCLB accountability regulations require that beginning with 2011-2012 school year results, schools and districts are accountable not only for an aggregate graduation rate for the school/district, but also for whether or not all student groups have met either the graduation rate goal or annual target.  When establishing a new graduation rate goal and annual targets, states must take into consideration how they will be applied to all student subgroups and how the new rules about the disaggregation of graduation rate data will impact on the number of schools and districts that may be identified as not making AYP.  In addition to the new NCLB requirements, IDEA requires states to establish measurable and rigorous targets for graduation rates for students with disabilities.  The Department designates districts that fall significantly below the State established targets as districts "needing assistance" or "needing intervention."

 The critical policy decisions that the Regents identified to make this fall include:

• How rigorous do the Regents want the accountability graduation rate goal and annual target(s) to be?

• Do the Regents want to use an extended-year adjusted cohort graduation rate (or rates) in order to give schools and districts credit for students who take longer than four years to graduate?

• When do the Regents want to begin using the new federal four-year adjusted rate graduation rate definition?

• Do the Regents wish to continue to implement the phase-out of the local diploma for general education students?

Next Steps

              At last month’s meeting of the Board of Regents, members of the Board suggested a series of issues and additional information/data that they wish to receive as part of the ongoing discussion concerning the policy questions listed above.  A compilation of those issues, and the additional data that will be provided this fall, is included in this item. Some of the information requested in June is included in Attachments A and B.  In addition, a list of the policy decisions that the Board of Regents will need to make this fall and additional information about those issues is also included. 

Regents Policy Questions, Issues and Data Requested

Impact of Phasing-out Local Diploma for General Education Students

• What were the specific requirements for receipt of local diplomas by students in cohorts prior to 2004?  How does the phase-out of the local diploma for general education students work? (Attachment A)

• What is the breakdown of performance for students who have not received a Regents Diploma because they did not pass the Regents examinations with scores of at least 65?   How are student performing on the various required Regents examinations? 

• What will be the impact of eliminating the local diploma for general education students?

Cohort Analysis

• What does a total cohort picture look like for a district?

• How is a cohort defined?  How are dropouts and transfers counted? (Attachment B)

• How many students are in the student groups for which schools would not make Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP)?

• What happens to students in high needs groups when schools eliminate certain programs for those student groups?

Issues for Students with Disabilities

• What are the legal issues connected to issuing local diplomas only to students with disabilities?

• Are some districts over-identifying students for IEP diplomas?

• What are the NCLB and IDEA accountability requirements concerning students with disabilities?  How does changing the accountability graduation rate goal and annual target(s) impact on these requirements?

• Should the current “safety net” for students with disabilities be extended beyond the 2009 student cohort?

Extended-year Cohort

• How does the use of an extended-year cohort(s) for accountability purposes impact the graduation rate?

• What do we know about the needs of students who take longer than four years to graduate?

• What strategies work to improve the graduation rate for these students?

Other Issues

• How should graduation standards align with college readiness?

• How should performance on 3-8 tests align with success in high schools and performance on Regents exams align with success in college?

• How should “real” consequences for poor performance drive policy?

Decision Points by the Board of Regents for 2009

• Do the Regents want to set a rigorous “aspirational” graduation rate goal and a separate accountability graduation rate goal and annual target(s)? (September/October 2009)

• How rigorous do the Regents want the accountability graduation rate goal and annual target(s) to be?  (September/October 2009)

• When do the Regents want to begin using the federal four-year adjusted rate graduation cohort definition? (September/October 2009)

• Do the Regents wish to continue to implement the phase-out of the local diploma for general education students? (September/October 2009)

• Do the Regents want to use an extended-year adjusted cohort graduation rate (or rates) in order to give schools and districts credit for students who take longer than four years to graduate? (September/October 2009)

• Should the current “safety net’ for students with disabilities be extended beyond the 2009 student cohort? (December 2009)

Background Information on Decision Points

    In early fall 2009, states will be asked by USED to submit their transitional graduation rate definition for the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 school years if a State chooses not to immediately implement the federal four year adjusted graduation rate definition.  At that time, states will also be required to submit their graduation goal and target(s), with the understanding that states may submit revisions to the goal and target(s) when transitioning to the use of four year adjusted graduation rate definition.  We expect more information from USED during the summer regarding the format and information that states will be required to submit in the fall.

The timeline as we know it now is as follows:

September/October 2009:                Decisions: Do the Regents want to set a more rigorous “aspirational” graduation rate goal and a separate accountability graduation rate goal and annual target(s)?   How rigorous do the Regents want the accountability graduation rate goal and annual target(s) to be?    In the fall of 2009, the Regents have to submit a new accountability graduation rate goal and annual target(s) to USED for peer review and approval.  

    States must disaggregate graduation rate data for determining Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) based on assessments administered beginning with the 2011-12 school year results. At present, high schools and districts are accountable for meeting this goal and target with the “all students” group, not with any of the NCLB disaggregated student groups. Currently, New York’s accountability graduation rate goal is 55% and the annual graduation rate target is a 1% increase for schools and districts below the goal. Because the same graduation rate goal will apply to each student group for which a high school or district is accountable and there is extremely wide variation in graduation rates among groups, a graduation goal that may seem extremely modest when applied, for example, to the “all students” group may be exceedingly challenging when applied to other student groups such as English language learners or students with disabilities.

    The earlier a new, more rigorous graduation rate goal and annual targets are applied, the less time schools and districts have to improve outcomes to meet the goal and targets.  For example, if the new goal and targets were applied to 2009-2010 school year results, schools and districts would have no opportunity to influence these outcomes since they would be based on students who graduated through August 2009.  Even if the Regents delayed applying the new goal and targets until the 2011-2012 school year, this goal and target would be measured against the graduation rate for students who would be entering their third year of high school in 2009-2010.  Thus schools and districts would have only a limited amount of time to influence these results. The USED has not made clear whether a state may establish a timeline that sets a graduation goal that is raised over a period of years.

September/October 2009:    Decision:  When do the Regents want to begin using the federal four-year adjusted rate graduation cohort definition?  In fall 2009, the Regents must inform USED when they plan to begin using the federal definition.

While states are encouraged to begin using the federal definition as soon as possible, the federal government has asked that states begin to use the federal definition for accountability purposes no later than with the 2011-2012 school year results.   The more quickly the federal definition is adopted, the less time schools and districts have to prepare for the changes.  The Regents could decide to adopt the federal definition beginning with the 2009-2010 or 2010-2011 school year results or, in order to give schools and districts as much time as possible to prepare for this change, the Regents could decide to wait until the 2011-12 school year results to begin using the federal cohort definition.  

September/October 2009:  Decision:  Do the Regents wish to continue to implement the phase-out of the local diploma for general education students? Because the phase-out of the local diploma will have an impact on overall graduation rates, it will be important for the Regents to discuss whether or not they wish to continue the phase-out as a part of the discussion about setting a new accountability graduation rate goal and annual target(s).  

In New York State, for purposes of school and district accountability, the definition of a high school graduate includes students who complete high school with a local diploma, Regents diploma or Regents diploma with Advanced Designation.  Students who receive a General Equivalency Diploma (GED) or an individualized education program (IEP) diploma are not considered graduates for this purpose. In 2005, the Board of Regents adopted regulations that phased-out the option for general education students to receive a local diploma.  The phase-out will be complete beginning with general education students who entered ninth grade in 2008.  In order to graduate from high school, general education students in the 2008 cohort and future cohorts will have to receive either a Regents diploma or a Regents Diploma with Advanced Designation.  To receive a Regents diploma, these students must score 65 or above on 5 required Regents exams and earn 22 units of credit.  To receive a Regents diploma with Advanced Designation, students must score 65 or above on 8 required Regents exams and earn 22 units of credit.  (Students with disabilities still have the option of earning a local diploma.)

    September/October 2009:   Decision:   Do the Regents want to use an extended-year adjusted cohort graduation rate (or rates) in order to give schools and districts credit for students who take longer than four years to graduate?

    The federal regulations permit states to base AYP determinations in part on the performance of students who graduate in more than four years. This is a practice that NYS has already employed.  However, August graduation and a five and six year graduation rate has not counted for accountability purposes.  USED guidance suggests that states seeking to implement a five year extended graduation rate will likely be approved. Those states that wish to implement a six or more year extended graduation rate will be asked to provide additional documentation to support the use of an extended graduation rate of such length. If the Regents decide to use an extended year cohort, they can decide to give schools and districts credit for making AYP so long as the school or district achieves the goal or the target(s) on either the four year cohort or the extended year cohort or create an index that combines the four year and the extended year graduation rates and use that as the basis for AYP determinations.  If a state chooses to implement an extended year graduation rate cohort, the state must decide how the extended graduation rate will be used in combination with the four year graduation rate for making AYP decisions.

    December 2009:  Decision: Should the current “safety net” for students with disabilities be extended beyond the 2009 student cohort?

    The current regulations indicate that the 2009 cohort (students who enter Grade 9 in September 2009) is the last cohort entitled to use the Regents Competency Tests (RCTs) as a “safety net” for earning a local diploma.  However, a large proportion of students with disabilities continue to rely on one or more of the RCTs as a basis for graduating with a local diploma.  Without access to the RCT or an alternative, many more students would be denied a regular diploma and many more school districts would be identified for not meeting the new graduation accountability standards for this subgroup.

                                                                                    Attachment A

Graduation Requirements for General Education Students*/ Phase-out of the Local Diploma for General Education Students

              Passage of Regents Competency Tests (RCTs) to meet the requirements for a local diploma was completely phased-out for general education students after the 1998 cohort.

The 1999 - 2004 Cohorts

              In order to graduate from high school, students in the 1999 - 2004 cohorts (students who entered 9th grade in September 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 or 2004) could earn a local diploma, a Regents diploma or a Regents diploma with advanced designation. 

• To earn a local diploma, students in these cohorts had to:

• Earn at least 22 units of credit, and
• Pass 5 required Regents exams with scores of 55-64. 

• To earn a Regents diploma, students in these cohorts had to:

• Earn at least 22 units of credit, and
• Pass all 5 required Regents exams with scores of at least 65.

• To earn a Regents diploma with Advanced Designation, students in these  cohorts had to:

• Earn at least 22 units of credit, and
• Pass all 8 required Regents exams with scores of at least 65

The 2005, 2006 and 2007 Cohorts

              In 2005, the Regents enacted regulations that would phase-out the availability of the local diploma for general education students.   The phase-out of the local diploma works as follows:

              To earn a local diploma, students in the 2005, 2006, and 2007 cohorts have to earn 22 units of credit and:

• Students in the 2005 cohort (students who entered 9th grade in September 2005) are required to pass at least two of the 5 required Regents exams** with a score of at least 65 and pass the remaining exams with a score of 55-64.

• Students in the 2006 cohort (students who entered 9th grade in September 2006) are required to pass at least three of the 5 required Regents exams with a score of at least 65 and pass the remaining exams with a score of 55-64.

• Students in the 2007 cohort (students who entered 9th grade in September 2007) are required to pass at least four of the 5 required Regents exams with a score of at least 65 and pass the remaining exams with a score of 55-64.

              To earn a Regents diploma, students in the 2005, 2006 and 2007 cohorts are required to earn 22 units of credit and pass all 5 required Regents exams with scores of at least 65. 

              To earn a Regents diploma with advanced designation, students in the 2005, 2006 and 2007 cohorts are required to earn 22 units of credit and pass all 8 required Regents exams*** with scores of at least 65. 

The 2008 Cohort and Future Cohorts

              The phase-out of the local diploma for general education students will be complete after the 2007 cohort.  This means that general education students in the 2008 cohort (students who entered 9th grade in September 2008) and future cohorts will no longer have the option of receiving a local diploma.  In order to graduate from high school, these students are required to receive either a Regents diploma or a Regents diploma with Advanced Designation.

              To earn a Regents diploma, students in the 2008 cohort and future cohorts are required to earn 22 units of credit and pass all 5 required Regents exams with scores of at least 65. 

              To earn a Regents diploma with advanced designation, students in the 2008 cohort and future cohorts are required to earn 22 units of credit and pass all 8 required Regents exams with scores of at least 65. 

*    The graduation requirements for students with disabilities are not included in this attachment. 

**   The 5 Regents examinations required for a Regents Diploma are:  English, Mathematics, Science, Global History and Geography and United States History and Government. 

***   In addition to passage of the 5 Regents examinations required for a Regents Diploma, recipients of a Regents Diploma with Advanced Designation must pass a second Regents examination in Mathematics, a second Regents examination in Science and a Regents examination in Languages other than English. 

                                                                                                                                                Attachment B

Graduation Rate Cohort Definition used for Making AYP Determinations for Schools and Districts

              No Child Left Behind requires states to define graduation rate as the percentage of students who earn a regular high school diploma in the standard number of years. 

              Prior to the 2011-2012 school year results, states have been given considerable flexibility to create their own methodology for determining which students should be included in the graduation rate cohort. 

New York State’s Current Cohort Definition

              New York’s current methodology for calculating graduation rate for AYP purposes is very similar to USED’s four year adjusted graduate rate. In making accountability decisions for schools and districts for the 2009-2010 school year, New York will use the results of the 2004 graduation-rate cohort.  This cohort is defined as follows:

              The 2004 graduation-rate cohort consists of all students as of June 30, 2008,              regardless of their current grade status, who:

• first entered grade 9 (anywhere) during the 2004–05 school year (July 1, 2004 through June 30, 2005); or
• in the case of ungraded students with disabilities, reached their seventeenth birthday during the 2004–05 school year

                                                                      AND

• whose last enrollment in the school or district was 5 months or longer (excluding July and August) or, whose last enrollment was less than 5 months but who had a prior enrollment in this school or district between July 1, 2004 and June 30, 2008 that was 5 months or more.

              When reporting data on the 2004 graduation cohort, SED excludes students              whose last enrollment record indicated that they:

• transferred to another district or nonpublic school or a criminal justice facility; or
• left the U.S. and its territories; or
• died

              Graduation rate for the 2004 cohort is computed by dividing the total number of students who earned a local diploma or a Regents diploma no later than August 2008 by the total number of students in the graduation cohort.

Example:

There were 500 students with a last enrollment record at School A that shows the student first entered ninth grade during the 2004-2005 school year or were ungraded students with disabilities who reached their seventeenth birthday during the 2004-2005 school year. 

A.          50 students  either left the school for a variety of reasons after being  enrolled in          the school for less than five months or were enrolled in the school for less than         five months as of June 30, 2008.

Of the remaining 450 students who were enrolled for at least five consecutive months:

B.          250 students earned a Regents diploma by August 2008

C.          50 students earned a local diploma by August 2008

D.          30 students earned a local or Regents diploma after August 2008

E.          20 students are still enrolled in the school as of June 2009

F.           15 students earned a GED diploma

G.          10 students earned an IEP diploma

H.          25 students transferred to another school

I.            10 students left the country

J.           4 students were incarcerated and did not return to the school

K.          1 student died

L.           35 students dropped out of school with no record of having enrolled in another             high school program

In the example above:

              90 students would not have been included in the cohort:

• the 50 students who were enrolled for less than five months before leaving the school (A);
• the 25 students who transferred to another school (H);
• the 10 students who left the country (I);
• the four who were incarcerated (J), and
• the one who died (K).

              410 students would have been included in the cohort:

• the 250 students earned a Regents diploma by August 2008 (B);
• the 50 students earned a local diploma by August 2008 (C);
• the 30 students earned a local or Regents diploma after August 2008 (D):
• the 20 students are still enrolled in the school as of June 2009 (E);
• the 15 students earned a GED diploma (F);
• the 10 students earned an IEP diploma (G), and
• the 35 students dropped out of school with no record of having enrolled in another high school program (L).

The graduation rate is computed by taking the total number of students who earned a regular diploma by August 2008 (B  (250) and C (50) ) and dividing it by the total number of students in the cohort (B + C + D + E + F + G + L):

                                                        300 (B + C)

                                                        divided by:

                                                        410    (B + C + D + E + F + G + L) 

                                                        = 73.2% graduation rate

New Federal Four Year Adjusted Graduation Rate Cohort Definition

Beginning with 2011-2012 school year results, all states must calculate graduation rate using the USED’s four year adjusted graduation rate methodology.

Under the new USED four year adjusted graduation rate cohort definition, the above calculations would have been the same except:

• Students in Group A (enrolled in the school less than five months) would not be automatically removed from the cohort and instead would have to be assigned to one of the groups B – L.

• Students in Group J cannot be automatically removed from the cohort and must          

        be treated as dropouts unless these students are enrolled in a program leading a       high school diploma while incarcerated.

• Some or all of students who were classified as ungraded students with disabilities may instead need to be assigned to a cohort earlier than the year they turn 17.